FEARS that Hurricane Katrina would push the US economy into recession will be exposed as unfounded this week with the release of another set of strong growth figures.

Americas astonishing resilience ensured that its economy grew by around 3.5% in third quarter, most Wall Street economists said this weekend. This is despite sky-high oil and petrol prices, higher interest rates and a general political malaise.

Consumers are feeling a bit better than a month ago, according to Ed Yardeni of Oak Associates. Weekly employment indicators suggest that the number of jobs is still growing, he says, while sales at the large retailers are growing steadily and applications for mortgages remain at close to record highs. The only sign of a consumer slowdown is the weekly borrowing figures, with personal loans and home equity loans growing at their lowest pace in two years.

Even though many Americans still believe their economy is underperforming, it is in fact growing at a much faster rate than those of other rich countries, such as Britain, where growth in the third quarter was only an annualised 1.6%.

The last recession in the US started in March 2001 and ended in November 2001, according to the National Bureau of Economic Researchs Business Cycle Dating Committee even if some Americans wrongly still believe themselves to be mired in recession. The contraction lasted just eight months, slightly less than average for recessions since the Second World War. The events of 9/11 were therefore largely shrugged of by the US economy, just as Hurricane Katrina has been over the last month.

Since the beginning of the current growth cycle in November 2001, the US economy has grown during every quarter. Even growth for 2001 as a whole was positive at 0.8%; it was 1.6% in 2002; 2.7% in 2003 and a massive 4.2% in 2004. The latest poll of economists by Consensus Economics suggests it will grow by 3.5% in 2005 and by 3.3% in 2006.

The current economic expansion has now lasted for four years, longer than many previous periods of economic growth in US history. The average length of the growth period during the pervious 32 cycles that took place between 1854 and 2001 was only 38 months.

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